Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Science in Scouting: Is it gonna rain?

Some might say weather prediction is like rocket science. Well, actually, it's a little true, considering the random and unpredictable nature of the weather system. But the following tips may help you predict the weather, even though it may not be 100% accurate. Still, this proves that you don't have to be a meteorologist to predict weather.

The Red Sky
I dunno whether this works. Maybe sometimes, it may be due to luck. I heard this from a British science show, "Red sky at night, Shepard's delight, Red sky in the morning, Shepard's warning. " A red sky is produced by a low sun shining through clouds, so, as clouds are blown mainly to the west, as the sun sets, they are blown away, carrying the rain with it (not sure whether that applies here in Malaysia). The opposite happens in the morning, which means the poor shepards have to get their sheeps out of the rain. I'm not sure how this sentence came to be, but it may work sometimes.

This fact is from a website, regarding the red sky thingie:
If you see a red sky during sunset (when you're looking to the west), there is a high pressure system with dry air that is stirring dust particles in the air, causing the sky to look red. Since prevailing front movements and jet streams weather usually move from west to east, the dry air is heading towards you.

A red sky in the morning (in the East, where the sun rises) means that the dry air has already moved past you, and what follows behind it (on its way towards you) is a low pressure system that carries moisture.

Cows
Again, I saw this from the same British science show, "Brainiac". It's a very funny show actually. Anyway, it says that when it's going to rain, cows will prefer to sit on the ground, rather than standing up. This is because, they want to ensure a dry patch of grass beneath their udders, and dry udder means a happy cow. Again, I can't really say it's true, but it never hurts to experiment.

Clouds
Reference: http://www.scienceray.com/Earth-Sciences/Meteorology/How-to-Predict-the-Weather-Watching-Clouds.116193

Ooh, Stratus clouds. These are often guided by rain, ice crystals or snow.

Meet Mr. Altocumulus. These precede a cold front, and on a warm, humid summer morning, they signal that thunderstorms will generate later that day.

Cumulus clouds. These generate a lot of wind and can grow into a cumulonimbus cloud.

Stratocumulus. They don't bring lot of problems themselves, only drizzle, light rain or sometimes snow, but they are often on the front or tail of worse weather, in the form of thunderstorms and gusty winds.

Cumolonimbus. These can cause rain, snow and thunderstorms.

Cirrostratus. RAIN!

Well, these are just some examples from that website.

Wind Direction
Taken from a website:
If unable to immediately detect the wind's direction, throw a small piece of grass in to the air and watch its descent. Easterly winds can indicate an approaching storm front, westerly winds the opposite. Strong winds indicate high pressure differences, which can be a sign of advancing storm fronts. Deciduous trees show the undersides of their leaves during unusual winds, supposedly because they grow in a way that keeps them right-side up during typical prevalent winds.

The scent of nature
Take a deep breath. Close your eyes and smell the air.
  • Plants release their waste in a low pressure atmosphere, generating a smell like compost and indicating an upcoming rain.
  • Swamps will release gasses just before a storm because of the lower pressure, which leads to unpleasant smells.
  • A proverb says "Flowers smell best just before a rain." Scents are stronger in moist air, associated with rainy weather.
Animals
Animals can also be a good indicator of rain.
  • If birds are flying high in the sky, there will probably be fair weather. (Falling air pressure caused by an imminent storm causes discomfort in birds' ears, so they fly low to alleviate it. Large numbers of birds roosting on power lines indicates swiftly falling air pressure.)
  • Seagulls tend to stop flying and take refuge at the coast if a storm is coming.
  • Animals, especially birds, get quiet immediately before it rains.
  • Cows will typically lie down before a thunderstorm. They also tend to stay close together if bad weather's on the way.
  • Ants build their hills with very steep sides just before a rain.
  • Cats tend to clean behind their ears before a rain.
  • Turtles often search for higher ground when a large amount of rain is expected. You will often see them in the road during this period (1 to 2 days before the rain).
  • A very old wives tale says if birds feed in a storm it will rain for a long time, if they don't it will clear soon.
Camp fire
Make a camp fire. The smoke should rise steadily. Smoke that swirls and descends is caused by low pressure (i.e. rain on the way).

Circle around the moon, rain or snow soon
If it is reddish or pale, dust is in the air. But if the moon is bright and sharply focused, it's probably because low pressure has cleared out the dust, and low pressure means rain. Also, a ring around the moon (caused by light shining through cirrostratus clouds associated with warm fronts and moisture) can indicate that rain will probably fall within the next three days.

Well, these are just some examples on how to predict weather. Due to the unpredictable characteristic of the weather system (and probably global warming), it may not be 100% accurate. Still, it may be of use to you during camps in the jungle, where rain is something you have to look out for.

reference: http://www.wikihow.com/Predict-the-Weather-Without-a-Forecast

Have fun rain hunting!

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